# Crystal Ball ORB · Edition 04

Window: September 9–22, 2026. New five-call cutoff: 2026-09-09T03:21:01+00:00.
Ten retained calls preserve their probabilities, rules, prose and original cutoffs.
The active record contains fifteen unresolved calls. No result has been entered.

The new calls cover a speculative StarCraft reveal and delivery of announced robotics,
manufacturing, AI-agent and gameplay demonstrations. Those are different forecasting
classes. Calendar fulfillment is generally easier than predicting an unannounced
breakthrough. We do not score whether an event becomes a popular headline.

Use each explicit rule, including its evidence requirements and deadline. Some calls
test publication of a documented demonstration, not a hidden event. A complete review
with no qualifying public evidence can resolve those calls NO; inadequate access leaves
them unresolved. Record source, timestamp, interventions and whether a demo was live.
Do not move a scoring target after seeing the outcome.

The current snapshot is forecast-edition-04.json. Its hash establishes file identity,
not independent publication time. Use public commit history for the latter. Exclude
any claim whose outcome was already public before its first publication from prospective
scoring. Keep earlier editions as dated text records; the owner authorized deleting old audio.

For resolved binary calls use Brier loss (p-y)^2, reporting the resolved denominator out
of fifteen and every unresolved case. Report the five newest calls separately from the
ten retained calls, and retain older batch distinctions. Correlated demos from the same
event and selected easy calendar tests limit interpretation. Compare against appropriate
base rates; a fixed 50% forecast has loss 0.25 but is not necessarily a fair benchmark.

This is a playful educational experiment inspired by AGI claims. It does not demonstrate
AGI, calibration or foreknowledge. The site has no automatic news or warning feed.
World Watch’s ten unscored stories retain their stated earlier snapshot dates. Current
official guidance takes precedence for safety decisions. The nine-chapter course is unrecorded.